Mungkinkah Kurs Rupiah Tembus Rp 16.000 Per Dollar AS? Ini Kata Analis

Ilustrasi nilai tukar rupiah.

Lihat Foto

Ilustrasi nilai tukar rupiah.(Shutterstock)

Ilustrasi nilai tukar rupiah.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) masih melemah. Kini mata uang Garuda kembali mendekati level Rp 15.500 per dollar AS.

Pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah yang masih berlanjut ini dikhawatirkan akan menembus Rp 16.000 per dollar AS di sisa tahun 2022.

Analis Sinarmas Futures Ariston Tjendra mengatakan, peluang nilai tukar rupiah yang melemah hingga Rp 16.000 per dollar AS masih terbuka lantaran faktor yang membuat rupiah melemah masih akan berlanjut.

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"Untuk ke Rp 16.000, saya tidak bisa memprediksinya. Tapi peluang ke arah sana masih terbuka karena faktor-faktor penekan rupiah tersebut belum hilang dan kemungkinan masih ada di bulan-bulan mendatang," ujarnya saat dihubungi Kompas.com, Rabu (19/10/2022).

Dia menjelaskan, faktor eksternal penekan rupiah berupa kenaikan suku bunga acuan bank sentral AS The Fed yang diperkirakan masih akan terjadi hingga akhir 2022 bahkan awal 2023.

Selain itu, rupiah juga bisa kian melemah karena adanya kekhawatiran pasar terhadap potensi resesi global yang membuat pelaku pasar mengalihkan sebagian besar asetnya ke aset aman.

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Hal ini membuat aliran modal asing keluar dari negara berkembang dan sebagian berlabuh ke dollar AS sehingga menyebabkan nilai mata uang negara berkembang seperti rupiah menjadi melemah.

"Pelemahan rupiah terkait sentimen yang masih berkembang saat ini yaitu kenaikan suku bunga acuan The Fed yang agresif," kata dia.

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Selama 2022, The Fed telah lima kali menaikkan suku bunga acuannya dengan total kenaikan sekitar 300 basis poin (bps) menjadi 3-3,25 persen. Pada Juni, Juli, dan September kenaikkannya masing-masing sebesar 75 bps.

Keagresifan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga acuan di tahun ini membuat selisih suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (AS) dan AS semakin tipis. Pasalnya, BI baru dua kali menaikkan suku bunga acuan dengan total 75 bps sepanjang 2022 menjadi 4,25 persen.

Ariston mengatakan, selisih suku bunga acuan yang semakin tipis ini tidak menguntungkan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS. Inilah yang menjadi salah satu faktor penekan rupiah ke depannya.

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"Bila suku bunga acuan AS sama dengan suku bunga BI, tentu pelaku pasar akan lebih memilih aset dollar AS dibandingkan aset rupiah karena status aman dari aset dollar AS tersebut," jelasnya.

Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, nilai tukar rupiah pada perdagangan Rabu (19/10/2022) pukul 1:26 WIB berada di level Rp 15.489 per dollar AS. Angka ini melemah dibandingkan posisi pembukaan perdagangan tadi pagi yang di level Rp 15.465 per dollar AS.

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Pilihan Untukmu

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' + item.method.toUpperCase()); } else { var sourceDiv = createElement('div', null, null, [cssClasses.source], resultObj.engine['type']); } var textWrapper = createElement('div', null, null, [cssClasses.text_wrapper]); textWrapper.appendChild(categoryDiv); textWrapper.appendChild(titleDiv); textWrapper.appendChild(sourceDiv); recItemWrapper.appendChild(imgWrapper); recItemWrapper.appendChild(textWrapper); recItemWrapperA.appendChild(recItemWrapper); recItem.appendChild(recItemWrapperA); widgetWrapper.appendChild(recItem); // hook up the click handler for this item // recItem.onclick = handleClick.bind(null, jxRecHelper, itemUrl + tracker_params, index); recItemWrapperA.onclick = handleClick.bind(null, jxRecHelper, itemUrl + tracker_params, index); }); } // end while var endDate = new Date(); var loadtime = (endDate.getTime() - startDate.getTime()); trackEventGa('AIML Article Recommendation', 'Content Loaded', 'algsrc='+algsrc+',site=MONEY,device=desktop,loadtime=' + loadtime) let domain = window.location.hostname; if(domain=='){ var url=window.location.href.split("/"); domain=url[2]+'/'+url[3] } let user_subs_type = "Gues"; let subs_type = ""; let is_lgn = 0; let engine = algsrc; if(getCookie('kmps_usrid')){is_lgn=1}; let time_load = loadtime; resolve(); /*** * JXRECSDK NOTES 3 of 5 - * pass all the info about the items to the rec helper * each one is an object: ALL MANDATORY * div * id * pos */ jxRecHelper.items(widgetItemArr); /*** * JXRECSDK NOTES 4 of 5 - * Call the ready() of the helper object when the recommendation * results have been populated to the widget * (This will register the action=ready event) */ if (resultObj.engine['type'] == 'api-1') { jxRecHelper.ready(resultObj.options.algo + ":" + resultObj.options.version); } else { jxRecHelper.ready(resultObj.engine['type']); } } else { jxRecHelper.error(204); console.error("Error: no recommendation items"); return; } } catch (err) { jxRecHelper.error(901); console.log(err.stack); let domain = window.location.hostname; if(domain=='){ var url=window.location.href.split("/"); domain=url[2]+'/'+url[3] } let user_subs_type = "Gues"; let subs_type = "" let is_lgn = 0; let engine = algsrc; if(getCookie('kmps_usrid')){is_lgn=1}; let endDate = new Date(); let time_load = (endDate.getTime() - startDate.getTime()); } }); } const _jxRecSdkURL = ' var startDate = new Date(); class OneWidget { constructor() { //this is also the one we will pass to the JX rec helper object when //we instantiate it: //In this implementation most of these come from the options obj //on the publisher page. this._options = { accountid: '9262bf2590d558736cac4fff7978fcb1', pageurl: ' widget_id: '1000183-6xWeiWZFIM', type: 'pages', container: 'rekomendasi-konten-pilihan-untukmu-aiml', keywords: content_tags, title: title, customid: "26", count: 14, }; this._containerId = this._options.container; this._container = document.getElementById(this._containerId); this._engines = [{"url":"https:\/\/recommendation.kgdata.dev\/rec\/kompascom\/api\/v2\/recommendation\/item","method":"POST","pageurl":"https:\/\/money.kompas.com\/read\/2022\/10\/19\/134633626\/mungkinkah-kurs-rupiah-tembus-rp-16000-per-dollar-as-ini-kata-analis","system":"kg","type":"api-2","tracker_params":"?source=widgetML&engine=C","tracker_algsrc":"C","count":14,"page_status":"read","excludeitemids":["20221019134633626"],"multiFormat":true}]; } kickOff() { startDate = new Date(); const rand = Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000); /*const randSystem = Math.floor(Math.random() * 3); this._engine = this._engines[randSystem] if (location.hostname.indexOf('lestari') != -1) { this._engine = this._engines[1] }*/ this._engine = this._engines[0]; this._options.system = this._engine['system'] trackEventGa('AIML Article Recommendation', 'Widget load', 'algsrc=' + this._engine['tracker_algsrc'] + ',site=MONEY,device=desktop') let promJXSDK = fetchJSFileP(_jxRecSdkURL); let thisObj = this; // first we wait on the JX REC SDK to be loaded and initialized let recHelperObj = null; let recResults = null; promJXSDK .then(function() { /*** * JXRECSDK NOTES 1 of 5 - INSTANTIATION OF A JX REC HELPER OBJECT * Call this AFTER JX REC SDK is loaded but BEFORE you call your REC * backend. * * param: MANDATORY options object * options object must at a minimal have * accountid: get from jixie * widgetid: get from jixie * container: DIV ID of the destination div to house the widget * (for jixie widget this is just the options object passed from the page) * * (This will also register the action=load event) */ recHelperObj = jxRecMgr.createJxRecHelper(thisObj._options); let basicInfo = thisObj._options; basicInfo.engine = thisObj._engine if (basicInfo.engine.type == 'api-1') { var options = { count: basicInfo['count'], adpositions: "", keywords: basicInfo['keywords'], title: basicInfo['title'], date_published: "2022-10-19", pagecategory: "MONEY", algo: "mixed" }; if(getCookie('kmps_usrid')){ var kg = { pagetype:basicInfo.engine.page_status, uid:getCookie('kmps_usrid'), ukid:getCookie('kmp_uid') } if(basicInfo.engine.page_status=='read'){ kg['excludeitemids'] = basicInfo.engine.excludeitemids; kg['multiFormat'] = true; } options['additional'] = { kg:kg }; } return recHelperObj.getJxRecommendations(options); } else { return fetchRecommendationsP(basicInfo, recHelperObj.getJxUserInfo()); } }) .then(function(resp) { if (thisObj._engine.type == 'api-3') { recResults = new Object recResults.items = resp.docs.result; } else { recResults = resp; } recResults.engine = thisObj._engine; if (!resp || !recResults.items || recResults.items.length == 0) { /*** * JXRECSDK NOTES 2 of 5 - * Call the error() function on the recHelper when either an error * has occured in the fetching or there are no recommended items * * (This will register the action=error event) */ recHelperObj.error(204); throw "no recommendation results"; } }) .then(function() { // everything is ready (recommendation results, css): document.getElementById("rekomendasi-konten-pilihan-untukmu-aiml").classList.remove("-loading"); document.querySelector('.wSpec-list').remove(); createDisplay(rand, thisObj._container, recResults, recHelperObj) .then(function() { toggleDropdown(); //observe lozad lozad('.lozad', { load: function(el) { el.src = el.dataset.src; el.onload = function() { el.classList.add('fade') } } }).observe() }) }) .catch(function(error) { console.log(`Unable to create recommendations widget ${error.stack} ${error.message}`); }); } } var limit_gtm_ready = 1; function check_gtm_ready() { if ('ga' in window) { // create a new instance of our widget based on the options const newW = new OneWidget(); newW.kickOff(); } else { const timeout_gtm_ready = setTimeout(check_gtm_ready, 500) limit_gtm_ready += 1; if (limit_gtm_ready > 10) { clearTimeout(timeout_gtm_ready); const newW = new OneWidget(); newW.kickOff(); } } } check_gtm_ready() document.querySelector('.wSpec-secret').addEventListener('click', function(e) { e.preventDefault(); let wSl = document.querySelectorAll('.wSpec-source'); if (wSl.length > 0) { for (let i = 0; i < wSl.length; i++) { wSl[i].classList.toggle('show') } } }) function trackEventGa(category, action, label) { if ("ga" in window) { ga(function() { tracker = ga.getAll()[0]; if (tracker) { tracker.send("event", category, action, label); console.log('track event ', category, action, label) } }) } } function formBody(obj) { let formBody = []; for (var property in obj) { let encodedKey = encodeURIComponent(property); let encodedValue = encodeURIComponent(obj[property]); formBody.push(encodedKey + "=" + encodedValue); } return formBody.join("&"); } function getCookie(name) { var name = name + '='; var cookies = decodeURIComponent(document.cookie).split(';'); for (var i = 0; i < cookies.length; i++) { var c = cookies[i]; while (c.charAt(0) == ' ') { c = c.substring(1); } if (c.indexOf(name) == 0) { return c.substring(name.length, c.length); } } } function get_guid(url) { const videoPath = url.match(/\/watch\/(\d+)/); if (videoPath) { return `video.${videoPath[1]}`; } let arrayUrl = url.split('/'); let readPath = arrayUrl.indexOf('read'); if (arrayUrl[readPath + 1] == 'xml') { readPath += 1; } let year = arrayUrl[readPath + 1]; let month = arrayUrl[readPath + 2]; let date = arrayUrl[readPath + 3]; let id = arrayUrl[readPath + 4]; let guid = `.xml.${year}.${month}.${date}.${id}`; return guid; } function toggleDropdown() { let tdd = document.querySelectorAll('[data-dropdown]') if (!!tdd) { tdd.forEach((el) => { el.addEventListener('click', function() { el.parentElement.classList.toggle('-active') let saved = el.parentElement.getAttribute('data-saved') let kmps_usrid = getCookie('kmps_usrid'); if (kmps_usrid && !saved && el.parentElement.classList.contains('-active')) { let url = el.parentElement.getAttribute('data-url'); let guid = get_guid(url); check_bookmark( kmps_usrid, guid ).then(function(resp) { if (resp.hasOwnProperty('total_data')) { if (resp.total_data > 0) { el.parentElement.querySelector('.buttonBookmark').classList.add('-active'); el.parentElement.querySelector('.buttonBookmark').innerHTML = 'Hapus dari tersimpan'; el.parentElement.setAttribute('data-saved', 'true'); } else { el.parentElement.setAttribute('data-saved', 'false'); } } }) } }) document.addEventListener("click", function(e) { // console.log(e.target) if (el.contains(e.target)) { // console.log(tdd) } else { el.parentElement.classList.remove('-active') } }); }); } } function check_bookmark(kmps_usrid, guid) { let url = ` return new Promise(function(resolve, reject) { var xmlhttp = new XMLHttpRequest(); xmlhttp.onreadystatechange = function() { if (this.readyState == 4 && this.status == 200) { resolve(JSON.parse(this.responseText)) } }; xmlhttp.open("GET", url, true); xmlhttp.send(); }); } function do_bookmark(pageurl, pos, userFeedback) { const wSpecItem = document.querySelector(`.wSpec-item[data-index="${pos}"]`); const btnBookmark = wSpecItem.querySelector('.buttonBookmark'); const kmps_usrid = getCookie('kmps_usrid'); const guid = get_guid(pageurl); const type = pageurl.match(/\/watch\/(\d+)/) ? 'video' : 'article'; if (kmps_usrid) { if (btnBookmark.classList.contains('-active')) { set_unbookmark({ guid: guid, kmps_usrid: kmps_usrid, type: type }).then(function(resp) { btnBookmark.classList.remove('-active'); btnBookmark.innerHTML = 'Simpan artikel'; reactionToast('Artikel berhasil dihapus dari list yang disimpan'); userFeedback.event('un-save'); }).catch(function(resp) { // message: "Data doesn't exists" if (resp.hasOwnProperty('message') && resp.message.includes('exist')) { btnBookmark.classList.remove('-active'); btnBookmark.innerHTML = 'Simpan artikel'; reactionToast('Artikel berhasil dihapus dari list yang disimpan'); } }) } else { const user_bookmark_url = ""; set_bookmark({ guid: guid, kmps_usrid: kmps_usrid, type: type, publisher: 'kompas', platform: 'desktop' }).then(function(resp) { btnBookmark.classList.add('-active'); btnBookmark.innerHTML = 'Hapus dari tersimpan'; reactionToast('Artikel berhasil disimpan', user_bookmark_url); userFeedback.event('save'); }).catch(function(resp) { // message: "Data already exist" if (resp.hasOwnProperty('message') && resp.message.includes('exist')) { btnBookmark.classList.add('-active'); btnBookmark.innerHTML = 'Hapus dari tersimpan'; reactionToast('Artikel berhasil disimpan', user_bookmark_url); } }) } } else { const login_url = "" + btoa(window.location.href); window.location.href = login_url; } } function set_bookmark(data) { const url = ""; return new Promise(function(resolve, reject) { const xmlhttp = new XMLHttpRequest(); xmlhttp.onreadystatechange = function() { if (this.readyState == 4 && this.status == 201) { resolve(JSON.parse(this.responseText)); } else if (this.readyState == 4 && this.status == 400) { reject(JSON.parse(this.responseText)); } }; xmlhttp.open("POST", url, true); xmlhttp.setRequestHeader("Content-Type", "application/x-www-form-urlencoded;charset=UTF-8"); xmlhttp.send(formBody(data)); }); } function set_unbookmark(data) { const url = ""; return new Promise(function(resolve, reject) { const xmlhttp = new XMLHttpRequest(); xmlhttp.onreadystatechange = function() { if (this.readyState == 4 && this.status == 200) { resolve(JSON.parse(this.responseText)); } else if (this.readyState == 4 && this.status == 400) { reject(JSON.parse(this.responseText)); } }; xmlhttp.open("POST", url, true); xmlhttp.setRequestHeader("Content-Type", "application/x-www-form-urlencoded;charset=UTF-8"); xmlhttp.send(formBody(data)); }); } class UserFeedback { constructor(engine, pageurl, jxRecHelper, pos) { this.engine = engine; this.pageurl = pageurl; this.jxRecHelper = jxRecHelper; this.pos = pos; } event(feedback) { if (this.engine == 'C') { const xmlhttp = new XMLHttpRequest(); let params = { domain: 'kompas.com', ce_userid: getCookie('kmps_usrid'), ce_sessionid: getCookie('ukid'), ce_pageurl: this.pageurl, engine: 'C', ce_feedback: feedback } xmlhttp.open("GET", ' + formatParams(params)); xmlhttp.send(); } else if (this.engine == 'V') { if (feedback == 'share') { this.jxRecHelper.shared(this.pos); } else if (feedback == 'save') { this.jxRecHelper.bookmarked(this.pos); } else if (feedback == 'not-interested') { this.jxRecHelper.hidden(this.pos); } else if (feedback == 'un-not-interested') { this.jxRecHelper.unhidden(this.pos); } } } } function formatParams(params) { return "?" + Object .keys(params) .map(function(key) { return key + "=" + encodeURIComponent(params[key]) }) .join("&") } document.addEventListener("click", function(e){ let dx = document.querySelectorAll('[data-dropdown]') if(dx) { dx.forEach(function(el){ if(el.contains(e.target)) { el.parentElement.classList.toggle('-active') } else { el.parentElement.classList.remove('-active') } }) } })

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